The forecast focuses on the revenue derived from the sales of LPWAN chipsets and modules, as well as the per-device connectivity revenue charged by network operators and service providers. Licensed spectrum LPWAN (L-LPWAN) strategies have come to the fore in the past year, with LTE Cat-M and LTE Cat-NB networks appearing in more and more markets.
Unlicensed spectrum LPWAN (U-LPWAN) is currently dominated by LoRa and Wi-SUN, but the MNOs loom large. Campus and client-based networks are a major opportunity for U-LPWAN, and Riot Research anticipates that there will be a divergence between U-LPWAN and L-LPWAN through the period – with U-LPWAN moving to address use-cases that L-LPWAN cannot.
The report identifies the core use-cases that will drive demand for LPWAN connections, and applies a degree of caution and skepticism to use-cases that lack major channel partners, or markets where demand is yet unproven, outside of a few niche projects. This report follows the major trends and partnerships that vendors have managed to cultivate, while the tendency among other forecasts has been to simply accept the use-cases cited by vendors – instead of thoroughly exploring the viability of the use case and the technology’s ecosystem.
By definition, this report finds that Wi-SUN will become the most successful LPWAN protocol by 2023, leading in connections at 895.3mn across our identified key use-cases. LoRa is projected to achieve second-place, on 589mn, while LTE Cat-NB is expected to reach 516.7mn, with Cat-M on 245mn. Combined, the L-LPWAN variants achieve 761.8mn.
However, in terms of revenue, L-LPWAN is projected to account for the lion’s share - a combined $12bn, or 63.8% of the total $18.84bn projected for LPWAN. LoRa is anticipated to achieve $5.95bn in annual revenues in 2023, by comparison, around 31.59% of the total LPWAN revenue.
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