Tuesday, 19th November 2019
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Alteryx predicts that Roger Federer will beat Novak Djokovic in the 2019 Men’s Singles final

Alteryx has utilised the power of predictive analytics to predict the outcome of this year’s Wimbledon Men's Singles championship. Leveraging over 100 years of historical match data from Kaggle, Alteryx has built a predictive model that suggests Roger Federer will beat Novak Djokovic in the final match on Centre Court. This data has also given some insight into the physical profile of the ultimate male tennis player.

Alan Jacobson, Chief Data and Analytics Officer at Alteryx comments on these predictions; “Whether you need to serve up big data sets or perform complex analytical predictions to ace the next match, data is changing the way sports are played. From identifying key injury triggers or predicting training loads, predictive and spatial tools lend themselves beautifully to sport. The ability to exploit match and individual performance data in new ways are helping to determine realistic predictions to gain the winning edge. By building advanced predictive models to garner complex insights we can test the output against past similarly ranked Wimbledon winners to test the accuracy of our predictions. Finally, by running the model against the entrants for Wimbledon 2019, we can predict who has the best chance of being crowned the champion of Centre Court.”

The model that is used creates an odds ratio when there is more than one explanatory variable. With this model, Alteryx has gained insight into the physical attributes of the ideal men’s tennis player: Aged 26, height of 185 cm (6’1), weight of 80kg (12st 8 lbs), right-handed, with a two-handed backhand. While the model shows that a height difference (with the taller player having the advantage) is predictive of winning, success is defined by much more than physicality. According to the analysis, when similarly ranked players have very a similar probability of winning, height was a defining factor for predicting the end outcome of the match - with taller players having the advantage.

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